Truck maker Navistar offers weak 2009 forecast

Truck maker Navistar International Corp. provided a soft 2009 forecast on Monday, citing weak demand in North America where sales volumes are expected to remain near 30-year lows.

But predictions on a conference call with analysts that the market could show some recovery by the second half of 2009 helped push up the company's shares by more than 23% to $30.10. "We believe 2010 will be stronger than 2009,"said Chief Executive Dan Ustian on the call.

The stock had a rough ride in 2008, falling more than 50% as a crisis in financial markets affected lending.

For 2009, the Warrenville, Ill., manufacturer said it expects earnings of $5.10 to $5.60 a share. Analysts had expected earnings of $6.45 a share, on average, according to a poll from FactSet Research.

Navistar predicted industry-wide retail sales volumes for Class 6 to 8 trucks and school buses should total between 244,000 to 256,000 units, compared with 244,100 units last year.

The company stressed that its expansion into international markets, particularly for military trucks, will ensure profitability for the fiscal year ending Oct. 31.

"Our profitability in 2008 in turbulent economic conditions demonstrates our ability to grow outside our core North American business by growing beyond the cyclicality of our traditional markets into other profitable businesses," said Ustian.

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