Will the Sharp Export Drop to Russia Inflict Heavy Losses on the Asian Vehicle Market?

This drop in export happened to take place in the first month since the receiving policy for scrapped vehicles was implemented. Since September 1, a fee as high as 100,000 rouble for each scrapped vehicle was imposed on commercial vehicles by the Russian government. The first one to suffer this policy was commercial vehicles from Asian countries because of the lower price over European products.

As statistics of the Russian market shows, besides the sharp import drop of trucks from China, truck import from South Korea also suffered a decline in September. 67 trucks were merely introduced to Russia because the number of light trucks below 5t has decreased from 1,600 to 49. Trucks from Thailand also performed poorly in Russian market, two thirds of the export has been reduced in September, down to 308. Among which, light trucks are the main reduction source. Meanwhile, the import from other Commonwealth of Independent States also faced a sharp downturn. Export from Ukraine and Uzbekistan to Russia slid to 423 and 297 respectively, only half of the previous number. Upset by Russia’s policy, Ukraine returned like for like policy to Russia. Dayu was the main export from Uzbekistan to Russia; it fell by 17% in September.

Not only Asian companies, manufacturers from Europe also met the “Waterloo”. 256 trucks from Spain were exported to Russia, reaching a half of the previous number. 1/3 of the export to Russia from Germany, France has been reduced, down to 336 and 162 respectively. The export to Russia from Italy and Sweden slid to 226 and 20 respectively, down by 1/5. At the same time, trucks from Japan gained a growth in export to the Russian market in September.

As early as July and August, the manufacturers who are sensitive to the vehicle scrapped policy have taken proactive actions to increase the export to the Russian market. Statistics from the customs showed that the export from foreign manufacturers rocketed in July because they were anxious about the upcoming excessive price on commercial vehicles in August. Later, by taking the opportunity of Russia entering the WTO and the customs entry fee being reduced from 30% to 25%, yet not imposing scrapped vehicle fee on them, manufacturers speeded up their export to the Russian market. Trucks import from China reached a year-on-year growth by 73%, up to 2,500; the import from Germany increased by 36%, up to 1,500 and import from Spain increase by 61%, up to 1,000.

Analysts believe that the sharp downturn in September is not merely caused by the influence of imposing scrapped vehicle fee, confusions about the rule of the policy is probably another reason for the decline. After self-adjustment, a rebound may appear in the export to the Russian market. By the end of 2015, Chinese truck brands in the Russian market may account for 20% of the market share.